The Impact of a Decrease in Energy Reserve to Production Ratio on Malaysia’s Energy Security

With the rapid growth of population and increase in energy demand, there is a high demand for fossil fuels to meet the supply needs. In this research, the decreasing impact of fossil fuels reserves to the production ratio (R/P) is studied using the system dynamics approach of modelling. A total of 3 dimensions, namely, availability of energy, socio-economy, and environmental sustainability, was studied with their relevant indicators. Three causal loop diagrams (CLDs) were combined to form one final CLD, followed by converting the CLD to a stock and flow diagram (SFD). The SFD is simulated to draw the significant findings of this research. The decreasing reserves of fossil fuels can threaten the economic growth subsequently the nation’s social well-being. Per this, it is vital to understand how energy security is impaired if such a scenario arises. The simulation results suggest that there will be a decrease in energy consumption, growth in economic health, and energy intensity due to a decrease in the R/P ratio. Energy efficiency seems to improve due to more careful use of lower supply in this scenario; however, it is not an indication of improved technological applicability or energy-efficient technologies. Energy policies such as the national depletion policy need to be curated to control the current usage of fossil fuels and introduce renewable energy sources faster to the energy mix to reduce dependency on fossil fuels.