TY - JOUR
T1 - The impact of temperature, population size and median age on COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak
AU - Lulbadda, Kushan Tharuka
AU - Kobbekaduwa, Dhanushka
AU - Guruge, Malika Lakmali
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors wish to thank the following individuals who assisted with the medical background of this research study and proofreading of the paper: Ms. H.M.D.D. Herath of Faculty of Medicine and Allied Sciences, Rajarata University of Sri Lanka and Ms. Dilani Shashika Senanayake of Faculty of Medicine, University of Kelaniya.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 INDIACLEN
PY - 2021/1/1
Y1 - 2021/1/1
N2 - Objectives: This study aims to explore the association between the spread of COVID-19 and external parameters. In this regard, temperature, population size, median age, and health care facilities of 58 different countries are considered as external factors. Methods: A negative binomial regression model was fitted to identify the associations between the factors and cases of COVID-19 during the study periods. Results: The temperature, population size, and median age are positively associated with the spreading rate of COVID-19. There is no evidence supporting that case counts of COVID-19 could decline in countries with better health care facilities. Also, an empirical model was presented to estimate the number of cases within a country using the external parameters. Conclusions: It is impossible to express the change in the number of cases for a unit increase in each of the variables because a change in a single variable depends on different values of other variables. However, the findings of this study provide useful implications for the authorities and decision-makers to take specific precautionary measures.
AB - Objectives: This study aims to explore the association between the spread of COVID-19 and external parameters. In this regard, temperature, population size, median age, and health care facilities of 58 different countries are considered as external factors. Methods: A negative binomial regression model was fitted to identify the associations between the factors and cases of COVID-19 during the study periods. Results: The temperature, population size, and median age are positively associated with the spreading rate of COVID-19. There is no evidence supporting that case counts of COVID-19 could decline in countries with better health care facilities. Also, an empirical model was presented to estimate the number of cases within a country using the external parameters. Conclusions: It is impossible to express the change in the number of cases for a unit increase in each of the variables because a change in a single variable depends on different values of other variables. However, the findings of this study provide useful implications for the authorities and decision-makers to take specific precautionary measures.
KW - Coronavirus
KW - COVID-19 outbreak
KW - Median age
KW - Population size
KW - Temperature
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85091687816&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.cegh.2020.09.004
DO - 10.1016/j.cegh.2020.09.004
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85091687816
SN - 2213-3984
VL - 9
SP - 231
EP - 236
JO - Clinical Epidemiology and Global Health
JF - Clinical Epidemiology and Global Health
ER -
