TY - JOUR
T1 - Outbreak analysis with a logistic growth model shows COVID-19 suppression dynamics in China
AU - Zou, Yi
AU - Pan, Stephen
AU - Zhao, Peng
AU - Han, Lei
AU - Wang, Xiaoxiang
AU - Hemerik, Lia
AU - Knops, Johannes
AU - Van Der Werf, Wopke
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 Zou et al. This is an open access article distributedunder the terms of the Creative CommonsAttribution License, which permits unrestricteduse, distribution, and reproductionin any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
PY - 2020/6
Y1 - 2020/6
N2 - China reported a major outbreak of a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV2, from mid-January till mid-March 2020. We review the epidemic virus growth and decline curves in China using a phenomenological logistic growth model to summarize the outbreak dynamics using three parameters that characterize the epidemic's timing, rate and peak. During the initial phase, the number of virus cases doubled every 2.7 days (range 2.2-4.4 across provinces). The rate of increase in the number of reported cases peaked approximately 10 days after suppression measures were started on 23-25 January 2020. The peak in the number of reported sick cases occurred on average 18 days after the start of suppression measures. From the time of starting measures till the peak, the number of cases increased by a factor 39 in the province Hubei, and by a factor 9.5 for all of China (range: 6.2-20.4 in the other provinces). Complete suppression took up to 2 months (range: 23-57d.), during which period severe restrictions, social distancing measures, testing and isolation of cases were in place. The suppression of the disease in China has been successful, demonstrating that suppression is a viable strategy to contain SARS-CoV2.
AB - China reported a major outbreak of a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV2, from mid-January till mid-March 2020. We review the epidemic virus growth and decline curves in China using a phenomenological logistic growth model to summarize the outbreak dynamics using three parameters that characterize the epidemic's timing, rate and peak. During the initial phase, the number of virus cases doubled every 2.7 days (range 2.2-4.4 across provinces). The rate of increase in the number of reported cases peaked approximately 10 days after suppression measures were started on 23-25 January 2020. The peak in the number of reported sick cases occurred on average 18 days after the start of suppression measures. From the time of starting measures till the peak, the number of cases increased by a factor 39 in the province Hubei, and by a factor 9.5 for all of China (range: 6.2-20.4 in the other provinces). Complete suppression took up to 2 months (range: 23-57d.), during which period severe restrictions, social distancing measures, testing and isolation of cases were in place. The suppression of the disease in China has been successful, demonstrating that suppression is a viable strategy to contain SARS-CoV2.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85087325878&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1371/journal.pone.0235247
DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0235247
M3 - Article
C2 - 32598342
AN - SCOPUS:85087325878
SN - 1932-6203
VL - 15
JO - PLoS ONE
JF - PLoS ONE
IS - 6 June
M1 - e0235247
ER -