Modeling the impact of climatic and non-climatic factors on cereal production: evidence from Indian agricultural sector

Abbas Ali Chandio*, Yuansheg Jiang*, Asad Amin, Waqar Akram, Ilhan Ozturk, Avik Sinha, Fayyaz Ahmad

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

36 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The underpinned study examines the effects of climatic and non-climatic factors on Indian agriculture, cereal production, and yield using the country-level time series data of 1965–2015. With the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, the long-term equilibrium association among the variables has been explored. The results reveal that climatic factors like CO2 emissions and temperature adversely affect agricultural output, while rainfall positively affects it. Likewise, non-climatic factors, including energy used, financial development, and labor force, affect agricultural production positively in the long run. The estimated long-run results further demonstrate that CO2 emissions and rainfall positively affect both cereal production and yield, while temperature adversely affects them. The results exhibit that the cereal cropped area, energy used, financial development, and labor force significantly and positively impact the long-run cereal production and yield. Finally, pairwise Granger causality test confirmed that both climatic and non-climatic factors are significantly influencing agriculture and cereal production in India. Based on these results, policymakers and governmental institutions should formulate coherent adaptation measures and mitigation policies to tackle the adverse climate change effects on agriculture and its production of cereals.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)14634-14653
Number of pages20
JournalEnvironmental Science and Pollution Research
Volume29
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2022
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • ARDL method
  • Agricultural output
  • Cereal production
  • Climate change
  • India

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