DAMPE squib? Significance of the 1.4 TeV DAMPE excess

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22 Citations (Scopus)


We present a Bayesian and frequentist analysis of the DAMPE charged cosmic ray spectrum. The spectrum, by eye, contained a spectral break at about 1TeV and a monochromatic excess at about 1.4TeV. The break was supported by a Bayes factor of about 1010 and we argue that the statistical significance was resounding. We investigated whether we should attribute the excess to dark matter annihilation into electrons in a nearby subhalo. We found a local significance of about 3.6σ and a global significance of about 2.3σ including a two-dimensional look-elsewhere effect by simulating 1000 pseudo-experiments. The Bayes factor was sensitive to our choices of priors, but favoured the excess by about 2 for our choices. Thus, whilst intriguing, the evidence for a signal is not currently compelling.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)181-184
Number of pages4
JournalPhysics Letters, Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics
Publication statusPublished - 10 May 2018
Externally publishedYes


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