The Omega model: from bankruptcy to occupation times in the red

Hans Gerber, Elias Siu, Hailiang Yang*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

38 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Ruin occurs the first time when the surplus of a company or an institution
is negative. In the Omega model, it is assumed that even with a negative
surplus, the company can do business as usual until bankruptcy occurs. The probability of bankruptcy at a point of time only depends on the value of the negative surplus at that time. Under the assumption of Brownian motion for the surplus, the expected discounted value of a penalty at bankruptcy is determined, and hence the probability of bankruptcy. There is an intrinsic relation between the probability of no bankruptcy and an exposure random variable. In special cases, the distribution of the total time the Brownian motion spends below zero is found, and the Laplace transform of the integral of the negative part of the Brownian motion is expressed in terms of the Airy function of the first kind.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)259–272
JournalEuropean Actuarial Journal
Volume2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012
Externally publishedYes

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