TY - JOUR
T1 - Speculative behavior in a housing market
T2 - Boom and bust
AU - Zheng, Min
AU - Wang, Hefei
AU - Wang, Chengzhang
AU - Wang, Shouyang
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2016
PY - 2017/2/1
Y1 - 2017/2/1
N2 - We study a housing market with household buyers, speculative investors and property developers in a Walrasian scenario. We show that in addition to the factors that affect the real demand of household buyers and the development cost of property developers, investors' speculative behavior is an important factor explaining housing price evolution and dynamics. In particular, investors' extrapolative expectations may drive the housing price to persistently deviate from its benchmark value and even to explode. In contrast, investors' mean-reverting strategy can balance out the position of trend extrapolators, which may stabilize an otherwise explosive housing market. Moreover, the evolutionary process of housing prices driven by investors' speculative behavior is path-dependent in the sense that different initial market conditions may result in different price paths, which corresponds to the localization property empirically documented in the real housing market. In addition, within the stylized model, we provide some policy implications through analyzing the limitation and effectiveness of policy adjustments via down payment and development cost, and find that the decrease of development cost is a better measure to adjust the housing market when it booms or busts.
AB - We study a housing market with household buyers, speculative investors and property developers in a Walrasian scenario. We show that in addition to the factors that affect the real demand of household buyers and the development cost of property developers, investors' speculative behavior is an important factor explaining housing price evolution and dynamics. In particular, investors' extrapolative expectations may drive the housing price to persistently deviate from its benchmark value and even to explode. In contrast, investors' mean-reverting strategy can balance out the position of trend extrapolators, which may stabilize an otherwise explosive housing market. Moreover, the evolutionary process of housing prices driven by investors' speculative behavior is path-dependent in the sense that different initial market conditions may result in different price paths, which corresponds to the localization property empirically documented in the real housing market. In addition, within the stylized model, we provide some policy implications through analyzing the limitation and effectiveness of policy adjustments via down payment and development cost, and find that the decrease of development cost is a better measure to adjust the housing market when it booms or busts.
KW - Extrapolative strategy
KW - Heterogeneous agents
KW - Housing pricing
KW - Mean-reverting strategy
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85006025184&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.11.021
DO - 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.11.021
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85006025184
SN - 0264-9993
VL - 61
SP - 50
EP - 64
JO - Economic Modelling
JF - Economic Modelling
ER -