TY - JOUR
T1 - Pricing Multi-Event-Triggered Catastrophe Bonds Based on a Copula–POT Model
AU - Tang, Yifan
AU - Wen, Conghua
AU - Ling, Chengxiu
AU - Zhang, Yuqing
N1 - Funding Information:
This project was funded by the Research Development Fund at XJTLU (RDF1912017) and the Post-graduate Research Scholarship (PGRS2112022) and Jiangsu Qinglan Talent in 2022.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 by the authors.
PY - 2023/8
Y1 - 2023/8
N2 - The constantly expanding losses caused by frequent natural disasters pose many challenges to the traditional catastrophe insurance market. The purpose of this paper is to develop an innovative and systemic trigger mechanism for pricing catastrophic bonds triggered by multiple events with an extreme dependence structure. Due to the bond’s low cashflow contingencies and the CAT bond’s high return, the multiple-event CAT bond may successfully transfer the catastrophe risk to the huge financial markets to meet the diversification of capital allocations for most potential investors. The designed hybrid trigger mechanism helps reduce the moral hazard and increase the bond’s attractiveness with a lower trigger likelihood, displaying the determinants of the wiped-off coupon and principal by both the magnitude and intensity of the natural disaster events involved. As the trigger indicators resulting from the potential catastrophic disaster might be associated with heavy-tailed margins, nested Archimedean copulas are introduced with marginal distributions modeled by a POT-GP distribution for excess data and common parametric models for moderate risks. To illustrate our theoretical pricing framework, we conduct an empirical analysis of pricing a three-event rainstorm CAT bond based on the resulting losses due to rainstorms in China during 2006–2020. Monte Carlo simulations are carried out to analyze the sensitivity of the rainstorm CAT bond price in trigger attachment levels, maturity date, catastrophe intensity, and numbers of trigger indicators.
AB - The constantly expanding losses caused by frequent natural disasters pose many challenges to the traditional catastrophe insurance market. The purpose of this paper is to develop an innovative and systemic trigger mechanism for pricing catastrophic bonds triggered by multiple events with an extreme dependence structure. Due to the bond’s low cashflow contingencies and the CAT bond’s high return, the multiple-event CAT bond may successfully transfer the catastrophe risk to the huge financial markets to meet the diversification of capital allocations for most potential investors. The designed hybrid trigger mechanism helps reduce the moral hazard and increase the bond’s attractiveness with a lower trigger likelihood, displaying the determinants of the wiped-off coupon and principal by both the magnitude and intensity of the natural disaster events involved. As the trigger indicators resulting from the potential catastrophic disaster might be associated with heavy-tailed margins, nested Archimedean copulas are introduced with marginal distributions modeled by a POT-GP distribution for excess data and common parametric models for moderate risks. To illustrate our theoretical pricing framework, we conduct an empirical analysis of pricing a three-event rainstorm CAT bond based on the resulting losses due to rainstorms in China during 2006–2020. Monte Carlo simulations are carried out to analyze the sensitivity of the rainstorm CAT bond price in trigger attachment levels, maturity date, catastrophe intensity, and numbers of trigger indicators.
KW - ARMA model
KW - CAT bond pricing
KW - CIR model
KW - extreme value theory
KW - nested Archimedean copula
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85168993691&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/risks11080151
DO - 10.3390/risks11080151
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85168993691
SN - 2227-9091
VL - 11
JO - Risks
JF - Risks
IS - 8
M1 - 151
ER -