Abstract
We consider a Susceptible-Infective-Removed (SIR) stochastic epidemic model in which the infection rate is of the form βN -1X(t)Y(t) α. It is demonstrated that both the threshold behaviour of this model and the behaviour of the corresponding deterministic model differ markedly from the standard SIR model (i.e. α=1). Methods of statistical inference for this model are described, given outbreak data, and the extent to which all three model parameters can be estimated is considered.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 38-48 |
Number of pages | 11 |
Journal | Mathematical Biosciences |
Volume | 238 |
Issue number | 1 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - Jul 2012 |
Externally published | Yes |
Keywords
- Bayesian inference
- Epidemic model
- Markov chain Monte Carlo methods
- SIR model