Modelling and inference for epidemic models featuring non-linear infection pressure

P. D. O'Neill*, C. H. Wen

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We consider a Susceptible-Infective-Removed (SIR) stochastic epidemic model in which the infection rate is of the form βN -1X(t)Y(t) α. It is demonstrated that both the threshold behaviour of this model and the behaviour of the corresponding deterministic model differ markedly from the standard SIR model (i.e. α=1). Methods of statistical inference for this model are described, given outbreak data, and the extent to which all three model parameters can be estimated is considered.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)38-48
Number of pages11
JournalMathematical Biosciences
Volume238
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2012
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Bayesian inference
  • Epidemic model
  • Markov chain Monte Carlo methods
  • SIR model

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