Investigating the Impact of Urban Energy Structure on Carbon Emissions: A Case Study of Suzhou City

Due to the excessive emissions of CO2, global warming has gained more attention worldwide. Many countries are studying energy conservation and emission reduction to achieve carbon neutrality. This paper investigates the impact of urban energy structure on CO2 emission in Suzhou, China. Based on 20 years of data, principal component analysis was used to identify the main influencing factors and explore the complex relationship between urban energy structure and carbon emission. A linear regression equation was developed to predict the future carbon emission scenario of the city. The findings reveal that: (1) The proportion of coal in the city’s energy structure is gradually reduced, accompanied by an increase in renewable energy such as electricity and heat. (2) Although the total carbon emissions are gradually increasing, the growth rate is decreasing, showing an encouraging sign of reducing the emission. (3) In terms of energy factors, coal proportion shows the strongest correlation with carbon emissions, while urbanization rate stands out among human factors, and the primary industry dominates the economic factors in GDP contribution. (4) Suzhou is better suited to meet the double carbon goal under the medium emission scenario, which calls for carbon emissions per unit GDP to decrease by 21.5% in 2025 compared to 2020 and 75.7% in 2030 compared to 2005.