TY - JOUR
T1 - Genotyping indicates marked heterogeneity of tuberculosis transmission in the United States, 2009-2018
AU - Rodriguez, Carly A.
AU - Li, Tenglong
AU - Self, Julie L.
AU - Jenkins, Helen E.
AU - Horsburgh, Charles R.
AU - White, Laura F.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Cambridge University Press.
PY - 2021/9/14
Y1 - 2021/9/14
N2 - Heterogeneity in the number of secondary tuberculosis (TB) cases per source case, the effective reproductive number, R, is important in modelling prevention strategies' impact on incidence. We estimated mean R (Rm) and calculate the dispersion parameter of this distribution, k, using surveillance and genotyping data for U.S. cases during 2009-2018. We modelled transmission assuming cases in a cluster have matching genotypes and share characteristics related to geography, temporal proximity (i.e. serial interval) and time since U.S. arrival among non-U.S.-born persons. Complete data were available for 55 330/85 958 cases. Varying the serial interval and geographic proximity used to derive clusters, we consistently estimated Rm<1.0 and k < 0.08; the low value of k indicates a small number of source cases produce a disproportionate number of secondary cases. U.S. TB reproductive number has a highly skewed distribution, indicating a minority of source cases disproportionately contribute to transmission.
AB - Heterogeneity in the number of secondary tuberculosis (TB) cases per source case, the effective reproductive number, R, is important in modelling prevention strategies' impact on incidence. We estimated mean R (Rm) and calculate the dispersion parameter of this distribution, k, using surveillance and genotyping data for U.S. cases during 2009-2018. We modelled transmission assuming cases in a cluster have matching genotypes and share characteristics related to geography, temporal proximity (i.e. serial interval) and time since U.S. arrival among non-U.S.-born persons. Complete data were available for 55 330/85 958 cases. Varying the serial interval and geographic proximity used to derive clusters, we consistently estimated Rm<1.0 and k < 0.08; the low value of k indicates a small number of source cases produce a disproportionate number of secondary cases. U.S. TB reproductive number has a highly skewed distribution, indicating a minority of source cases disproportionately contribute to transmission.
KW - epidemiology
KW - tuberculosis (TB)
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85115289361&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1017/S0950268821002041
DO - 10.1017/S0950268821002041
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85115289361
SN - 0950-2688
VL - 149
JO - Epidemiology and Infection
JF - Epidemiology and Infection
M1 - e215
ER -
