DUAPM: An Effective Dynamic Micro-Blogging User Activity Prediction Model towards Cyber-Physical-Social Systems

Recent emergence of 'microblogging' services has been driving cyber-physical social system (CPSS) as a hot topic in real-world applications. How to efficiently detect and recognise spam and fake accounts becomes an important task where it requires analysis of microblog user behavior and prediction of their activity. This article attempts to investigate this challenge by proposing a new strategy to effectively model microblogging user activity and dynamically predicting their activities for the CPSS applications. We first analysis and define a set of benchmarks for measuring microblogging user activeness in considering serval key dynamic attributes including change rate of microblogging numbers, user attentions, etc. Then, we build up a new dynamic microblogging user activity prediction model (DUAPM) based on three important characteristics: personal information, social relationship, and user interaction. Finally, an improved logical regression algorithm is proposed for training the model and predicting user activity. Under the evaluation of a sample dataset containing Sina Weibo 3621 users over 20 weeks, it shows that our model deliver average up to 3% higher prediction accuracy than other social media user activity prediction models using traditional logical regression and random forest algorithms. We also take out a CPSS case study of evaluating DUAPM models for analysis and prediction of Twitter users' activity over 16 countries. The results show that our model effectively reflects the distribution and trends of Twitter users' activity with different background and cultures.