Chinese Aid: Powering Africa and Mitigating Electricity-related Demonstrations

Chinese aid to Africa has dipped. At the same time, there has been a surge in anti-government protests and riots as witnessed in Kenya 2024, sparking curiosity about possible effects of foreign aid (or scarcity thereof) on public demonstrations. Existing studies on the security implications of foreign aid to Africa focus on risks of armed conflict, with no systematic attention to public manifestations which can spiral to deadly violence and repression. This paper explores the relationship between Chinese aid and anti-government demonstrations in recipient African states, with specific attention to aid and manifestations over electricity supply which is prioritised in national development strategies of many African states. Applied multiple regression analysis reveals a negative and statically significant relationship between Chinese electricity assistance and rates of anti-government manifestations over intermittent electricity access. Thus, while Chinese aid has been criticised, especially in Western media and policy circles, for perpetrating debt-traps and undermining state sovereignty, this paper adds to alternative evidence about the state legitimising and welfare-enhancing benefits of Chinese aid.