China stock market regimes prediction with artificial neural network and markov regime switching

David Liu*, Lei Zhang

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book or Report/Conference proceedingConference Proceedingpeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper provides an analysis of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index Movement Forecasting for the period 1999-2009 using two competing non-linear models, univariate Markov Regime Switching model and Artificial Neural Network Model (RBF). The experiment shows that RBF is a useful method for forecasting the regime duration of the Moving Trends of Stock Composite Index. The framework employed also proves useful for forecasting Stock Composite Index turning points. The empirical results in this paper show that ANN method is preferable to Markov-Switching model to some extent.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationWCE 2010 - World Congress on Engineering 2010
Pages378-383
Number of pages6
Publication statusPublished - 2010
EventWorld Congress on Engineering 2010, WCE 2010 - London, United Kingdom
Duration: 30 Jun 20102 Jul 2010

Publication series

NameWCE 2010 - World Congress on Engineering 2010
Volume1

Conference

ConferenceWorld Congress on Engineering 2010, WCE 2010
Country/TerritoryUnited Kingdom
CityLondon
Period30/06/102/07/10

Keywords

  • Artificial neural networks
  • Nonparametric estimation
  • RBF
  • Regime switching

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