Ambient climate determines the directional trend of community stability under warming and grazing

Changes in ecological processes over time in ambient treatments are often larger than the responses to manipulative treatments in climate change experiments. However, the impacts of human-driven environmental changes on the stability of natural grasslands have been typically assessed by comparing differences between manipulative plots and reference plots. Little is known about whether or how ambient climate regulates the effects of manipulative treatments and their underlying mechanisms. We collected two datasets, one a 36-year long-term observational dataset from 1983 to 2018, and the other a 10-year manipulative asymmetric warming and grazing experiment using infrared heaters with moderate grazing from 2006 to 2015 in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau. The 36-year observational dataset shows that there was a nonlinear response of community stability to ambient temperature with a positive relationship between them due to an increase in ambient temperature in the first 25 years and then a decrease in ambient temperature thereafter. Warming and grazing decreased community stability with experiment duration through an increase in legume cover and a decrease in species asynchrony, which was due to the decreasing background temperature through time during the 10-year experiment period. Moreover, the temperature sensitivity of community stability was higher under the ambient treatment than under the manipulative treatments. Therefore, our results suggested that ambient climate may control the directional trend of community stability while manipulative treatments may determine the temperature sensitivity of the response of community stability to climate relative to the ambient treatment. Our study emphasizes the importance of the context dependency of the response of community stability to human-driven environmental changes.