When Interdependence Produces Conflict: EU–Russia Energy Relations as a Security Dilemma

Abstract: Contrary to the expectations of liberal theories, interdependence between Europe and Russia in the energy sphere has exacerbated security tensions between the two sides, leading to the competitive foreign policies that now see them at loggerheads in Ukraine. Interdependence has not worked because both sides have been worried that in the future interdependence will become asymmetrical (that is, that they will become more dependent than the other side and that the other side will take advantage of this weakness) and they have adopted policies to reduce their exposure, but they cannot reduce their own dependence without also threatening to increase the dependence of the other side. As a result, the relationship looks like a classic security dilemma – where neither side can improve its own security without threatening the security of the other side. These findings dispel commonly held notions about the pacific effects of interdependence and show that interdependence can exacerbate security tensions, particularly when it is focused on one area and falls short of complex interdependence.