Towards better forecasting by fusing near and distant future visions

Jiezhu Cheng, Kaizhu Huang, Zibin Zheng

Research output: Chapter in Book or Report/Conference proceedingConference Proceedingpeer-review

36 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important yet challenging problem in machine learning. Most existing approaches only forecast the series value of one future moment, ignoring the interactions between predictions of future moments with different temporal distance. Such a deficiency probably prevents the model from getting enough information about the future, thus limiting the forecasting accuracy. To address this problem, we propose Multi-Level Construal Neural Network (MLCNN), a novel multi-task deep learning framework. Inspired by the Construal Level Theory of psychology, this model aims to improve the predictive performance by fusing forecasting information (i.e., future visions) of different future time. We first use the Convolution Neural Network to extract multi-level abstract representations of the raw data for near and distant future predictions. We then model the interplay between multiple predictive tasks and fuse their future visions through a modified Encoder-Decoder architecture. Finally, we combine traditional Autoregression model with the neural network to solve the scale insensitive problem. Experiments on three real-world datasets show that our method achieves statistically significant improvements compared to the most state-of-the-art baseline methods, with average 4.59% reduction on RMSE metric and average 6.87% reduction on MAE metric.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAAAI 2020 - 34th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence
PublisherAAAI press
Pages3593-3600
Number of pages8
ISBN (Electronic)9781577358350
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020
Event34th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, AAAI 2020 - New York, United States
Duration: 7 Feb 202012 Feb 2020

Publication series

NameAAAI 2020 - 34th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence

Conference

Conference34th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, AAAI 2020
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityNew York
Period7/02/2012/02/20

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