@article{26520fd85f6146ebbf040e6dfdb03671,
title = "The costs and benefits of primary prevention of zoonotic pandemics",
abstract = "The lives lost and economic costs of viral zoonotic pandemics have steadily increased over the past century. Prominent policymakers have promoted plans that argue the best ways to address future pandemic catastrophes should entail, “detecting and containing emerging zoonotic threats.” In other words, we should take actions only after humans get sick. We sharply disagree. Humans have extensive contact with wildlife known to harbor vast numbers of viruses, many of which have not yet spilled into humans. We compute the annualized damages from emerging viral zoonoses. We explore three practical actions to minimize the impact of future pandemics: better surveillance of pathogen spillover and development of global databases of virus genomics and serology, better management of wildlife trade, and substantial reduction of deforestation. We find that these primary pandemic prevention actions cost less than 1/20th the value of lives lost each year to emerging viral zoonoses and have substantial cobenefits.",
author = "Bernstein, {Aaron S.} and Ando, {Amy W.} and Ted Loch-Temzelides and Vale, {Mariana M.} and Li, {Binbin V.} and Hongying Li and Jonah Busch and Chapman, {Colin A.} and Margaret Kinnaird and Katarzyna Nowak and Castro, {Marcia C.} and Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio and Ahumada, {Jorge A.} and Lingyun Xiao and Patrick Roehrdanz and Les Kaufman and Lee Hannah and Peter Daszak and Pimm, {Stuart L.} and Dobson, {Andrew P.}",
note = "Funding Information: The Wildlife Trafficking, Response, Assessment and Priority Setting Project (TRAPS), financed by USAID and implemented by TRAFFIC and the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), identifies and advances interventions to break trafficking chains and disrupt organized criminal trade networks (89). Reducing Opportunities for Unlawful Transport of Endangered Species is a sister program to TRAPS and provides data analytics to support the transportation sector in battling illegal wildlife trade (90). Funding Information: The authors dedicate this paper to the late Tom Lovejoy, whose encouragement and lifetime achievements shaped our vision for this work and will inspire us, always. This work was supported by Johnson & Johnson (to P.D.), United States Department of Agriculture ILLU-470-363 (to A.W.A.), Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation QZA-0701 QZA-16-0162 (to J.B.), National Council for Scientific and Technological Development, Brazil CNPq 304309/2018-4M (to M.M.V.), US Agency for International Development (to P.D.), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China, 31800394 (to B.V.L.). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).",
year = "2022",
month = feb,
day = "4",
doi = "10.1126/sciadv.abl4183",
language = "English",
volume = "8",
journal = "Science Advances",
issn = "2375-2548",
number = "5",
}