Prediction of cryptocurrency returns using machine learning

Erdinc Akyildirim, Ahmet Goncu, Ahmet Sensoy*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

119 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this study, the predictability of the most liquid twelve cryptocurrencies are analyzed at the daily and minute level frequencies using the machine learning classification algorithms including the support vector machines, logistic regression, artificial neural networks, and random forests with the past price information and technical indicators as model features. The average classification accuracy of four algorithms are consistently all above the 50% threshold for all cryptocurrencies and for all the timescales showing that there exists predictability of trends in prices to a certain degree in the cryptocurrency markets. Machine learning classification algorithms reach about 55–65% predictive accuracy on average at the daily or minute level frequencies, while the support vector machines demonstrate the best and consistent results in terms of predictive accuracy compared to the logistic regression, artificial neural networks and random forest classification algorithms.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3-36
Number of pages34
JournalAnnals of Operations Research
Volume297
Issue number1-2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2021

Keywords

  • Artificial neural networks
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Logistic regression
  • Machine learning
  • Random forest
  • Support vector machine

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