Online Shop Daily Sale Prediction Using Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System

Yuanbang Liang, Yunyu Jia, Jinglin Li, Meiyi Chen, Yifan Hu, Yinan Shi, Fei Ma

Research output: Chapter in Book or Report/Conference proceedingConference Proceedingpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Online shopping is an increasingly popular way of purchasing among customers. Demands from online shopping are usually highly dynamic. Inventory management, to many online shop owners, hence is a challenging task. Accurate forecasting of daily sales helps better replenishment and sale. This paper proposes a method for online shop daily sale forecasting. In the method, Kalman Filter was firstly applied on the historic sale data to smooth the data. Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) was then built to achieve time series forecasting. Sale histories of an online shop was used to evaluate the method. Overall performance of ANFIS was evaluated with MAPE and ACC({pm}), and were found to be 1.0725 and 40%, respectively. The results were found to be slightly better than Back Propagation Neural Network which has MAPE 4.9891 and ACC({\pm}) 39.85{\%}. 200 products were divided into 6 groups based on corresponding MAPE and ACC({\pm}). The results showed that daily sales of 22.86% products were predicted accurately, while that of 34.29% products were badly predicted. The results also indicated that membership function inserted in the model causes little impact on prediction accuracy. It was tested that the average performance indicator ACC({\pm}) ({\%}) stays stable with different membership functions.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings - 2019 12th International Congress on Image and Signal Processing, BioMedical Engineering and Informatics, CISP-BMEI 2019
EditorsQingli Li, Lipo Wang
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9781728148526
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2019
Event12th International Congress on Image and Signal Processing, BioMedical Engineering and Informatics, CISP-BMEI 2019 - Huaqiao, China
Duration: 19 Oct 201921 Oct 2019

Publication series

NameProceedings - 2019 12th International Congress on Image and Signal Processing, BioMedical Engineering and Informatics, CISP-BMEI 2019

Conference

Conference12th International Congress on Image and Signal Processing, BioMedical Engineering and Informatics, CISP-BMEI 2019
Country/TerritoryChina
CityHuaqiao
Period19/10/1921/10/19

Keywords

  • Adaptive Network
  • Daily sale prediction
  • Fuzzy Inference System
  • Kalman Filter
  • Online shop
  • Time Series Prediction

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