Mapping the cost risk of agricultural residue supply for energy application in rural China

Jingchun Sun*, Jianhua Chen, Youmin Xi, Junhu Hou

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

26 Citations (Scopus)


This research aims to shed light on the interaction mechanism of cost risks for biomass material supply in power generation, especially for biomass-coal dual-fuel systems. Firstly, a game model is established to analyze interactions among factors including unit procurement cost, unit transportation cost, basic price and coal price for crop residue collection. Secondly, a Monte Carlo simulation is implemented to compare the profit increase under material competition with that under price alliance. The methodology is illustrated with a case study in a biomass power plant in Shandong Province, China. It shows that developing a price alliance will benefit both the allied enterprises and the local collection area in most circumstances. Thirdly, a risk tolerance area approach is applied in mapping the cost risk and in explaining the risky circumstances of the case study.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)121-128
Number of pages8
JournalJournal of Cleaner Production
Issue number2-3
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2011
Externally publishedYes


  • Biomass
  • Power generation
  • Risk
  • Simulation


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