Lockdown, Infection, and Expressed Happiness in China

This paper exploits data from Sina Weibo posts to study the effect of the Wuhan lockdown on expressed happiness during the initial COVID-19 outbreak. By applying the difference-in-differences method to a city-level expressed happiness index generated by Weibo posts, we find that the announcement regarding human-to-human transmission significantly lowered expressed happiness in Wuhan relative to Chinese cities outside Hubei province, while the subsequent Wuhan lockdown had protective effects during the first 12 days. The effects on expressed happiness remained significant in the medium run toward the end of Wuhan lockdown. However, our results also suggest that the protective effects of the Wuhan lockdown declined as the lockdown continued and the risk of infection became lower. Our findings are robust to the use of alternative control groups and sample periods, different expressed happiness measures, and the potential censorship of Weibo.