Heterogeneous epidemic modelling within an enclosed space and corresponding Bayesian estimation

Conghua Wen, Junwei Wei, Zheng Feei Ma, Mu He*, Shi Zhao, Jiayu Ji, Daihai He*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)


Since March 11th, 2020, COVID-19 has been a global pandemic for more than one years due to a long and infectious incubation period. This paper establishes a heterogeneous epidemic model that divides the incubation period into infectious and non-infectious and employs the Bayesian framework to model the ‘Diamond Princess’ enclosed space incident. The heterogeneity includes two different identities, two transmission methods, two different-size rooms, and six transmission stages. This model is also applicable to similar mixed structures, including closed schools, hospitals, and communities. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, our mathematical modeling can provide management insights to the governments and policymakers on how the COVID-19 disease has spread and what prevention strategies still need to be taken.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-24
Number of pages24
JournalInfectious Disease Modelling
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2022


  • COVID-19
  • Epidemic model
  • Incubation period
  • Transmission


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