Forecasting PM2.5 Concentrations with uEMEP and EMEP4PL for Poland

Maciej Kryza*, Malgorzata Werner, Bruce Rolstad Denby, Qing Mu, Tymoteusz Sawiński, Arkadiusz Remut

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book or Report/Conference proceedingConference Proceedingpeer-review


In this work we use the EMEP4PL model in combination with the high-resolution uEMEP model. EMEP4PL is an application of the EMEP MSC-W chemistry transport model for the area of Poland. The model uses two nested domains. The parent domain covers Europe with 12 km × 12 km. The nested domain is centered over Poland with a 4 km × 4 km grid. uEMEP is based on Gaussian modelling principles and allows downscaling of the EMEP4PL model results to very high spatial resolution using the local fraction approach. In this work, we have applied the uEMEP model to forecast hourly PM2.5 concentrations for the area of SW Poland with a spatial mesh of 250 m × 250 m. Both the EMEP4PL and uEMEP results are compared with two measuring networks. First, we compare the results with data gathered at six reference stations operated by the Chief Inspectorate of Environmental Protection. Second, we use data from the newly established LIFE/MappingAir network. This network uses low-cost sensors and provides data from 25 sites located in SW Poland. This network provides more data from residential areas, which are often the hot-spots for PM2.5 concentrations. We have shown that the uEMEP forecasts have smaller bias and higher index of agreement if compared to EMEP for the test period from April to end of June 2021.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAir Pollution Modeling and its Application XXVIII
EditorsClemens Mensink, Oriol Jorba
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media B.V.
Number of pages5
ISBN (Print)9783031127854
Publication statusPublished - 2 Jan 2023
Externally publishedYes
Event38th International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modeling and its Application, ITM 2021 - Barcelona, Spain
Duration: 18 Oct 202122 Oct 2021

Publication series

NameSpringer Proceedings in Complexity
ISSN (Print)2213-8684
ISSN (Electronic)2213-8692


Conference38th International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modeling and its Application, ITM 2021


  • Air quality modelling
  • PM2.5 forecasting
  • uEMEP model


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