Establishing a Spatio-Temporal Evolution Model of Carbon Productivity in Large Regions for Dual Carbon Target: a Case Study of Yellow River Basin

Reaching the double carbon target can be accomplished through carbon productivity. This paper used nine major provinces of the Yellow River Basin as research case, calculated the carbon productivity from 2012 to 2022, and analyzed the spatio and temporal evolution pattern of the carbon productivity of the nine provinces to coordinate carbon emission reduction in the region. The findings indicates that: (1) From the perspective of the proportion of energy consumption in this region, from 2012 to 2022, the proportion of fossil energy will gradually decrease, but still occupy the main energy consumption; the proportion of clean energy is gradually increasing, and it is expected to become the main energy consumption in the future.(2) The carbon productivity of the nine provinces of Yellow River Basin increased steadily from 2012 to 2022, with an increase rate of 72%. (3) In spatial terms, there is considerable regional heterogeneity of carbon productivity, the downstream region exhibits significantly higher carbon productivity than both the upstream and midstream regions, with the midstream slightly higher than the upstream. (4) For the carbon productivity in large regions of China, the adjustment of energy structure should be increased, and the development and investment in clean energy should be strengthened. The differences between different regions in large regions should not be ignored, and the monitoring of regions with low carbon productivity should be strengthened.