Characterizing superspreading potential of infectious disease: Decomposition of individual transmissibility

Shi Zhao*, Marc K.C. Chong, Sukhyun Ryu, Zihao Guo, Mu He, Boqiang Chen, Salihu S. Musa, Jingxuan Wang, Yushan Wu, Daihai He*, Maggie H. Wang

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In the context of infectious disease transmission, high heterogeneity in individual infectiousness indicates that a few index cases can generate large numbers of secondary cases, a phenomenon commonly known as superspreading. The potential of disease superspreading can be characterized by describing the distribution of secondary cases (of each seed case) as a negative binomial (NB) distribution with the dispersion parameter, k. Based on the feature of NB distribution, there must be a proportion of individuals with individual reproduction number of almost 0, which appears restricted and unrealistic. To overcome this limitation, we generalized the compound structure of a Poisson rate and included an additional parameter, and divided the reproduction number into independent and additive fixed and variable components. Then, the secondary cases followed a Delaporte distribution. We demonstrated that the Delaporte distribution was important for understanding the characteristics of disease transmission, which generated new insights distinct from the NB model. By using real-world dataset, the Delaporte distribution provides improvements in describing the distributions of COVID-19 and SARS cases compared to the NB distribution. The model selection yielded increasing statistical power with larger sample sizes as well as conservative type I error in detecting the improvement in fitting with the likelihood ratio (LR) test. Numerical simulation revealed that the control strategy-making process may benefit from monitoring the transmission characteristics under the Delaporte framework. Our findings highlighted that for the COVID-19 pandemic, population-wide interventions may control disease transmission on a general scale before recommending the high-risk-specific control strategies.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere1010281
JournalPLoS Computational Biology
Volume18
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2022

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Characterizing superspreading potential of infectious disease: Decomposition of individual transmissibility'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this