Booms and Busts in Commodity Markets: Bubbles or Fundamentals?

Chris Brooks, Marcel Prokopczuk, Yingying Wu*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

35 Citations (Scopus)


This paper considers whether there were periodically collapsing rational speculative bubbles in commodity prices over a 40-year period from the late 1960s. We apply a switching regression approach to a broad range of commodities using two different measures of fundamental values-estimated from convenience yields and from a set of macroeconomic factors believed to affect commodity demand. We find reliable evidence for bubbles only among crude oil and feeder cattle, showing the popular belief that the extreme price movements observed in commodity markets were caused by pure speculation to be unsustainable.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)916-938
Number of pages23
JournalJournal of Futures Markets
Issue number10
Publication statusPublished - 1 Oct 2015


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