基于贝叶斯理论的结构件健康状态评估方法研究

The structural health assessment in the crack propagation process was studied. Considering the wide existence of Weilbull distribution data characteristics in the assessment process, an approach for structural health assessment based on the Bayesian theory was proposed through combining the data of the type of Weibull distribution with the Bayesian theory. The numerical solutions for the complex posterior problems were provided by using the MCMC algorithm. The acoustic emission approach was adopted to collect the health assessment data for an industrial component. The health result obtained by the proposed model shows that two fractile parameters of 5% and 95% constitute the 90% of confidence interval of the assessment parameter for structural health. The posterior parameters are centrally distributed and the confidence level is up to 90%, which verifies the accuracy of the health assessment method.