LMDI-ARIMA Model for Carbon Emissions Analysis and Prediction in High Energy Consuming Industries with Emission Reduction Measures

In this paper, starting from the specific perspective of enterprises, the carbon emission calculation model is first used to calculate and organize the carbon emission data of three typical high energy consuming industries. Secondly, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition analysis method is used to calculate the contribution of fossil fuels in the carbon emissions of enterprise fuel combustion. After comparison, it is found that steel enterprises are most affected by this factor. At the same time, time series analysis is used to predict the future carbon emissions of different enterprises by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Finally, with the help of the established LMDI-ARIMA model, hypothetical adjustments were made to the proportion of fossil fuels in steel enterprises and carbon emissions predictions were made, obtaining the expected carbon reduction that the steel industry can achieve by changing the proportion of clean energy use.