How to Enhance Urban Vitality through Urban Renewal? Evidence from Suzhou, China, based on Machine Learning and Spatial Spillover Analysis

Urban vitality is widely recognized as a key criteria of urban quality, yet achieving a real-time evaluation of urban vitality and linking it with the effectiveness of urban renewal strategies presents ongoing challenges in policy and planning decision-making. To fill in this gap, this study developed an integrated evaluation framework and applied it to assess urban renewal projects in Suzhou through three quantitative dimensions: spatial behavior patterns, social perception dynamics, and policy intervention impacts. Key findings include: (1) In old communities, parking and structural upgrades significantly improve urban vitality (coefficients 0.127 and 0.099). (2) Public-facility renewal shows strong gains from traffic improvements (0.208), while excessive leisure space reduces effectiveness (− 0.299). (3) Cultural identity, lighting, and service facilities generate notable spatial spillover effects, underscoring multi-intervention synergies in mixed-use areas. The effectiveness of urban renewal initiatives is shaped by joint efforts of multiple interventions, especially in mixed-functional zones with residential, commercial, and public facilities. It is expected that this pioneering framework would support decision-making in future urban planning and design from a more scientific and data-driven perspective.