Exploring the Correlation Between Environmental Factors and Water Quality in Taihu Lake: Implications for Future Control Strategies

Accelerating urbanization has elevated nutrient levels (e.g., phosphorus, nitrogen) in aquatic systems, triggering recurrent cyanobacterial blooms in Taihu Lake, a critical freshwater source for surrounding cities. Analyzing 2007–2020 data, this study identifies significant positive correlations between chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), permanganate (MnO4⁻), and air temperature. TP and MnO4⁻ are key drivers of algal proliferation, while rising temperatures exacerbate eutrophication risks. Seasonal Chl-a peaks occur in warmer months, highlighting temperature’s role in algal growth. Machine learning models predict a 2°C global temperature rise could substantially increase Chl-a concentrations, particularly in May. To mitigate climate-driven water quality degradation, targeted reductions in TP/TN emissions and enhanced monitoring of temperature-sensitive zones are proposed. These measures are critical for safeguarding ecosystem resilience and ensuring sustainable water management in the Taihu Basin.