Ecological modelling in public policies of urban areas of the Atlantic Forest

In this paper possible applications of ecological modelling on the municipal level and beyond are investigated. The use of models and scenarios can help in the valuation of ecosystem services, that is, the benefits humans derive from nature for their well-being. Based on those scenarios, public policies can take better informed decisions on how to improve the provision of those services e.g. through conservation areas. To this end the concepts of ecosystem services, modelling and scenarios are explored to contextualize them in the urban setting of the setting of the Atlantic Rainforest. In this paper, it is argued that the lack of applied ecological modelling in the Atlantic Forest biome poses a threat to the provision of ecosystem services for the populations in Brazil's most populous urban areas that are situated in this biome.