Co-Evolutionary Pathways of Digital-Green Integration for Industrial Upgrading in Southern Xinjiang

Southern Xinjiang, historically dependent on traditional industries, faces dual challenges of environmental stress and economic stagnation. Leveraging digital technologies alongside green innovation offers a transformative pathway, yet little is known about how these trajectories interact in peripheral, culturally distinctive regions. This study develops a co-evolutionary framework combining Innovation Diffusion Theory and the Multi-Level Perspective to explain the mechanisms and conditions enabling industrial upgrading. Using fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) on 12 enterprises across textiles, agriculture, and mineral processing, supplemented by embedded case studies, the research identifies three dominant pathways: (1) digital acceleration, (2) green-led structural response, and (3) digital-green synergy. Findings reveal that digital capability acts as a necessary but insufficient condition; the most robust upgrading occurs when digital infrastructures integrate with ecological technologies and institutional incentives. These interactions enhance real-time transparency, operational flexibility, and market legitimacy. The study contributes theoretically by contextualizing socio-technical transition models for frontier economies and provides practical implications for policymakers and managers, emphasizing targeted infrastructure, policy alignment, and socio-cultural adaptability for sustainable industrial transformation.