A spatio-temporal dynamics analysis of water resouces carrying capacity based on panel data: Evidence from qinghai province, China

Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC), an important component of natural resources carrying capacity, has a crucial influence on the social and economic development of a country or a region. This paper use panel data to evaluate regional WRCC based on the new requirements of the Most Stringent Water Resources Management System (MSWRMS) in China. Firstly, under the "Three Red Lines" constraints from the MSWRMS, we propose a new concept, the Strictest Water Resources Carrying Capacity (SWRCC ), and build an evaluation index system for SWRCC. Secondly, in the field of panel data analysis, a grey time clustering evaluation model of SWRCC is proposed based on Compact- Center-point Triangular Whitenization Weight Function (CCTWF). By using the grey time clustering coefficient to characterize the temporal dimension of panel data, the temporal characteristics of SWRCC assessment and the importance degree of the evaluation index are reflected. Finally, we take Qinghai Province as an example to carry out empirical research. The empirical results show that the SWRCC presents obvious regional differences in the eight administrative districts of Qinghai Province. Regions subjected to lower levels of SWRCC will be restricted by problems of water use efficiency. By contrast, due to rapid socioeconomic development, regions with higher SWRCC will face significant water resource problems of high total water consumption and poor water quality.