Study on the Association Between the Global Zoonotic Emerging Infectious Diseases and Wildlife Trade, 1975-2013 based on Extreme Value Theory

Description

Zoonotic emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) present a significant threat to public health. The role of controlling wildlife trade in preventing zoonotic EIDs has gained increasing significance
since the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2. However, there is relatively little quantitative
research on the correlation between wildlife trade and zoonoses. This article examines the relationship between the intensity of global wildlife trade and the frequency of zoonotic EIDs from 1975 to 2013 for countries around the world, based on Extreme Value Theory (EVT). We employ bivariate Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) method to investigate the extreme association via the extreme tail index χ and Pickands dependence function plots. The results reveal that there is a significant extremal dependence between these two variables. It is noteworthy that, compared with trade exporting countries (χ = 0.2478), the frequency of zoonoses in importing countries is more affected by the strength of wildlife trade (χ = 0.3812). The importation of wildlife products may contribute to at least 30% of additional incidents of zoonotic EIDs. These findings may provide insights into preventing the spread of zoonoses.

Period	2023 → …
Degree of Recognition	Local