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Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of exposure to PM2.5 with joint mortality from lung cancer and stroke in California

    Activity: Supervision › Master Dissertation Supervision

    Description

    Poor air quality may induce a variety of diseases, endangering human health. This study
    focuses on investigating the relationship between exposure to serious air pollution and
    the mortality of lung cancer and stroke which varies over time and space across California
    from 2018 to 2020, taking into account potential meteorological and socioeconomic
    confounders. Based on integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method, a combination
    of Matern Covariance Function and stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE)
    is used to generate PM2.5 concentrations estimations at the county level according to the
    concentration recorded from monitoring stations geographically uneven distributed. Then
    the Zero-inflated Poisson models with Bayesian approaches considering fixed effect and
    the spatio-temporal random effect are proposed and compared. After selecting the model
    with the best performance on model fitting, a joint model of two cause-specific mortality
    is defined to identify the similar and different effects of interrelated factors. The results
    show that accounting for spatial variation between counties and time trend, the counties
    with high PM2.5 concentrations have a higher risk of stroke mortality than expected while
    the relationship is not statistically significant for lung cancer. High health insurance rates
    are significantly associated with low mortality rates for both diseases whereas the effects
    of other covariates on mortality are different. Finally, this paper proposes constructive
    suggestions concerning air pollution risk warning and public health policy adjustments at
    the state and federal level, which will also be helpful to explore how to reduce the risks of
    lung cancer and stroke mortality in the U.S.
    Period2023